Climate experts worry about Donald Trump’s re-election impact

Donald Trump is seen backstage at Palm Beach County Convention Centre in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S. on November 6, 2024. Photo: X/@EricTrump via Reuters

With the 29^th edition of the annual climate conference set to begin in Baku, Azerbaijan next week and Donald Trump likely to be re-elected as President of the United States, climate experts worry about what this will mean for global efforts at addressing climate change.

In 2017, Mr. Trump announced the U.S.’s exit from the Paris Climate Agreement, which commits countries to keep the world from ensuring that average temperatures did not exceed 2°C^{of pre-industrial levels by the turn of the century. The Paris Agreement in Trump’s reckoning was a “bad deal that committed the country to pay billions of dollars” without getting anything in return, hobbled the coal industry and compromised the country’s defence spending. Though the formal exit was a years-long procedure, the U.S. almost immediately rejoined the Agreement following Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 U.S. Presidential polls.}

Given this background, there is concern among climate experts on American commitment to carbon mitigation efforts, particularly the Trump campaign’s espousal for fracking and distrust of the scientific consensus on the impacts of human-caused greenhouse gas warming.

‘Hope remains’

“Climate change is real and the need for global action and cooperation continues to be an imperative of the highest order. While past experience hasn’t been encouraging, hope must remain for the next Trump Presidency,” Manjeev Puri, Distinguished Fellow, The Energy Resources Insitute (TERI) said in a statement. “We hope they will find ways to do things that are supportive of climate action. Innovation and technological progress is dear to the President-elect. It is also critical for climate action and offers opportunities for U.S. leadership.”

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“Trump’s actions on climate policy last time, and decision to withdraw from Paris agreement give no confidence that he will give the right attention the climate emergency requires,” said Arti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, a research and advocacy organisation. “The world is different from the last time he came to power. Climate impacts have ravaged every part of the world, and climate change is much more visible as a determinant of global chaos. The COP in Baku is going to start under a very challenging political context, one in which the U.S. will not have a mandate or political will. It may lead to further lack of progress on important elements like hiking cash for climate action, and may create more impediments than solutions on contentious matters like trade given Trump’s protectionist stance,” Ms. Khosla pointed out.

New financial target

A key issue that is likely to deliberated upon at Baku is on agreeing to a New Collective Quantified Goal, or a new financial target that rich, developed countries must transfer to developing countries annually to mitigate and adapt against the effects of climate change. The existing figure is $100 billion a year, which too — many countries – have barely met. While a new, upwardly revised figure is only expected by 2025, this is the time by when the Trump administration would have taken over.

Others are more optimistic with expectation that trade in green energy might continue to benefit India. “Currently, India exports 90% of its solar modules to the U.S. Over the next four years, India will need to be prepared and strategically nimble to deepen green trade, co-develop clean tech supply chains, and accelerate its energy transition,” Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) said in a statement. “The U.S. election results do not change the fact that India and the U.S. will continue to be key strategic partners. With Donald Trump in power, India can count on continued oil and gas supply to ensure its developmental needs since the U.S. is a net exporter of fuels now.”