Sri Lanka to hold key parliamentary vote on November 14

Mr. Dissanayake’s ruling alliance is targeting a majority in the legislature, to take forward his policy and legislative pledges. Opposition parties appear to have conceded early, going by their muted campaigns that are pitching a “strong opposition” to the electorate. The ruling National People’s Power [NPP] alliance which held just three seats in the last Parliament must obtain 113 for a simple majority in the 225-member House. Voters elect as many as 196 MPs directly, while the remaining 29 members of the House are chosen through a “national list” that allocates seats to parties based on their share of votes as per Sri Lanka’s proportional representation system.

Also read: Sri Lanka’s multi-ethnic east reflects challenges facing Anura Kumara Dissanayake

A total of 8,821 candidates from various political parties and independent groups are running in the general elections, after the country witnessed a staggering political shift. Mr. Dissanayake’s victory in September and the rise of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP of People’s Liberation Front) he leads — the NPP’s chief political constituent — as a formidable third force coincided with the decimation of Sri Lanka’s traditional parties, the centre-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party and centre-right United National Party (UNP) and their offshoots that dominated national politics for decades. Several senior politicians from these camps, including the Rajapaksa clan, have opted out of this election, apparently fearing rejection by voters.

Taking off on Mr. Dissanayake’s anti-corruption plank ahead of the presidential polls, the NPP is asking voters to “cleanse the Parliament”. It is widely expected that the alliance will secure a majority, owing to two reasons. Political observers point to an “AKD [as he is popularly known] wave” that endures after the leftist leader of a small party rose to the country’s top office. Mr. Dissanayake’s vote share grew from 3.16 % in the 2019 presidential race to 42.3% in the September election. Further, Sri Lanka’s electoral history shows that the party of a newly-elected President often garners a parliamentary majority, especially when the general election is held soon after the presidential poll.

“In the event the NPP gets a simple majority, the fragmented opposition should come together and play a constructive role in Parliament,” says R. Ram, senior political journalist and News Editor at popular Tamil daily Virakesari. If the NPP does not get a majority, it should seek post-poll alliances with [ethnic] minority parties rather than with hardline Sinhala-nationalist groups to form government, he contends. “A two-thirds majority is unlikely and certainly not desirable. Absolute power can prove dangerous, especially when there are so many oppressive laws that the government could use [against detractors].”

Also read: President Anura Kumara Dissanayake promises return of Tamils’ land grabbed by state agencies 

K.P. Somalatha, who leads a farmers’ group in the southern Monaragala district, concurs. “Two-thirds is never a good idea; we have seen how regimes have abused such power,” she says. The President has so far “given a strong message”, she says, pointing to his “simple” swearing in ceremony in September. “He is committed to ending corruption. He must also address the grievances of Tamils living in the north and east, and in the hill country where there are many challenges around wages and land rights. That must be a priority for this government.”

Meanwhile, regional parties representing ethnic minorities — Tamils of the north and east, Malaiyaha Tamils of the hill country and Muslims — are facing a tough election.

Also read: Regardless of change in national politics, Tamils need strong representation in Parliament: Sumanthiran

Political groups have split, and several former MPs face sharp criticism within their electorate. Many residing in the island’s north and east say voters are ready for “change”, implying that the call for change that preceded Mr. Dissanayake’s election is now echoing regionally as well. Thursday’s election marks the next phase of the political churn that began with the 2022 Janatha Aragalaya (people’s struggle) that ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, calling for “system change”.