CAN PAT SURTAIN II CONTINUE HIS LOCKDOWN PLAY?
One potential reason for the Chargers’ offensive success against the Broncos in Week 6? No Pat Surtain II.
The All-Pro cornerback suffered an injury on the first drive of the game, and the Chargers took advantage. This time, the uber-talented Surtain will look to limit quarterback Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ passing game.
According to Next Gen Stats, Surtain has allowed an average of 2.4 catches and 20.3 yards in his seven career games against the Chargers, and he has yet to allow a touchdown as the nearest man in coverage. Surtain has a pair of interceptions off Herbert, including a pick six in their first meeting in Denver in 2021.
Surtain has allowed the fewest yards per target (4.9) this year of any NFL cornerback with at least 40 targets, which explains why he’s not often being targeted. He is tied for the fewest targets in the NFL among cornerbacks with at least 400 coverage snaps, and he’s been targeted on just 11.7 percent of his coverage snaps against the Chargers since 2022.
Whether Surtain guards an impressive rookie in Ladd McConkey or the Chargers’ leader in receiving touchdowns in Quentin Johnston, he could take a major piece of Los Angeles’ offense out of the game. And if he does that, it could be good news for Denver’s defense.
CAN THE BRONCOS’ PASS RUSH GET TO JUSTIN HERBERT?
In the Broncos’ Week 6 loss to the Chargers, Herbert was sacked just once in the first half as Los Angeles built a 20-0 halftime lead. Denver got to Herbert two more times in the second half as the unit held LA to three second-half points, and the Broncos may need to bring the pressure again.
Herbert enters the Week 16 matchup with a 16-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he posted 11 consecutive starts without an interception before that streak was snapped in Week 15 vs. Tampa Bay. The Oregon product has not thrown an interception against a division opponent since Week 14 last season, when outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper picked him off in a Denver win. Herbert, in fact, is on pace to lead the NFL in interception rate, as just 0.5 percent of his passes this season have been picked off.
How can the Broncos force the talented quarterback into turning the ball over? It may come via pressure, as Denver boasts the most sacks in the NFL entering Week 16. Denver also has the second highest pressure rate (38.6) and blitz rate (38.4) in the NFL, and the Chargers allow the ninth-worst pressure rate (45.8) vs. blitzes in the NFL. Herbert has been pressured on 71 dropbacks by blitzes this year, which is the third-highest mark in the NFL.
The Broncos are currently on pace to be just the fifth team to lead the NFL in scoring defense and sacks in the same season, and all three of the previous AFC teams to do so advanced to at least the AFC Championship Game. If Denver can finish strong and nab the scoring defense title, the group would be just the second in franchise history to do so, joining the 1989 unit.
If the Vance Joseph-led group can force Herbert into mistakes — the Broncos have snagged the fourth-most interceptions — and win the turnover battle, Denver could be in luck. The Broncos are 9-1 this season when forcing a takeaway, and they’re 7-0 when winning the turnover battle. For comparison, Denver has yet to win this season in the four games in which it has lost the turnover battle. The Chargers, though, rank fourth in the NFL with a plus-11 turnover margin.
“Part of this game is understanding how to win and how not to beat yourself or how to keep yourself from winning,” Payton said Tuesday. “I think that’ll be extremely important.”
CAN DENVER EARN THE EDGE IN THE RUSHING BATTLE?
When the Chargers came to Denver, they ran past the Broncos. Led by J.K. Dobbins’ 96 rushing yards, the Chargers put up 128 rushing yards — including 69 in the first half — against the Broncos.
Los Angeles’ run-first offense passed the 120-yard mark on six occasions in the Chargers’ first 10 games, and the group also crossed the 150-yard barrier on three occasions. The Chargers’ rushing attack, though, hasn’t been the same since Dobbins was placed on injured reserve in late November.
The Chargers have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in each of their last four games, which is the longest streak in Jim Harbaugh’s career as an NFL or FBS head coach, according to Next Gen Stats. Los Angeles is averaging just 18 carries per game since Week 12, which is the fewest in the NFL — and the Chargers carried the ball just 11 times for 32 yards in Week 15 vs. the Bucs. That output is the lowest in carries and rush yards by any Harbaugh team in his NFL head-coaching career. Los Angeles has been led by Gus Edwards in each of its last three games, but he’s posted fewer than 40 yards in each of those contests.
If Denver’s fifth-ranked rushing defense — which is allowing the second-fewest yards per carry — can stifle a struggling Chargers’ run game, it could tilt the game in Denver’s favor.
The Broncos, of course, will aim to get their own run game going in Los Angeles. Denver will be without Jaleel McLaughlin, who was ruled out with a quad injury, which may lead to more work for rookie Audric Estime. Denver has recorded fewer than 100 rushing yards in three of its last five games, and the Broncos’ coaching staff is looking closely at how to find more success.
“I would say there there’s some looks that we have to be better at, relative to when we’re running a certain play into some tough looks where now you don’t really have the leverage,” Payton said Monday. “We have to do a better job as coaches, starting with me, and having solutions when the looks aren’t what you’re practicing. Overall, I think it’s an area that … — here we are with three weeks left in the season — we have to find more consistency there.”
While the Chargers’ defense is tied for first in the league in points allowed, the unit has given up 200 rushing yards in two of its last four games — including 223 yards on Sunday vs. Tampa Bay.
If Denver can gain the edge on the ground by limiting the Chargers and getting its own run game going, it could help determine which team can grind out long drives, control the field-position game and ultimately win the game.
